What will happen with coalition Government?
Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), the former Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP) finished their Congress and it seems that everybody was happy there. Therefore, there are no reasons for them to kill the coalition Government. But it is a completely different story when it comes to the Democratic Party. There are so many forces there who want to stop the coalition Government.
Let go back to why the coalition Government was created. The Mongolian Democratic Party (MDP) lost in parliamentary elections. Then Mongolia had the bloody 1st of July events and there was a military curfew for several days. Mongolia was facing turmoil for the next four years and we expected a fight within Parliament and a fight between the President and Parliament.
But Mr. S. Bayar, Chairman of the MPRP persuaded his own party and he invited the MDP to join the coalition government. The newly elected Chairman of the MDP, Mr. N. Altankhuyag brought his members to the Mongolian Government. He tried to please every fraction within the MDP. Mr. N. Altankhuyag invited Mr. S. Bayartsogt to be Minister of Finance, Mr. L. Gansukh as Minister of Environment, Mr. L. Bold as Minister of Defense, Mr. Kh. Battulga as Minister of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development and Mr. S. Lamba as Minister of Health. Most of them accepted straight away with great pleasure, but a few of them played some political games.
With the Coalition Government, the Oyu Tolgoi agreement was passed by the Mongolian Parliament. Three Ministers put their signatures there: Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Mr. D. Zorigt, Minister of Finance, Mr. S. Bayartsogt, and Minister of Environment, Mr. L. Gansukh. Two MDP ministers and one MPRP minister closed the deal with Ivanhoe Mines.
Now it seems that these three people will close the deal over Tavan Tolgoi. But MDP people are starting to say that this is too much for Mr. S. Bayartsogt, and Mr. L. Gansukh.
With the recent success of the IPO of Energy Resources, Mongolian business people and most importantly the Mongolian Government, understands that the mineral resources industry is the key point for future business success in Mongolia. Before that, every Mongolian businessman wanted to produce vodka, which was a cash cow business. Now you cannot compare the margins from the vodka business with any mining project.
Therefore, the MDP people are demanding their piece of the pie from mining projects. For example, Mr. N. Batbayar, Member of Parliament from the MDP, used to run a successful business. Many people know him as Fortuna Batbayar, rather than N. Batbayar. (Fortuna is the name of his company). There are many other MDP business people, who were financing the MDP over the last 20 years. Of course, the success of the MDP, based on their financial support, now have many MDP members receiving many medals and titles from the “first democratic” President of Mongolia, Mr. Ts. Elbegdorj. Unfortunately, business cannot flourish from medals, business needs fat government contracts, free government assets etc.
There are also some unhappy people within the MDP ministers as well. Some of them are holding some ministerial empty bags. For example, Mr. L. Bold is the Minister of Defense, he also owns the Bodi Group with the biggest Mongolian Bank-Golomt bank. Mongolia is not the United States; we have a very tiny military budget.
Finally, there are many business people who support the MDP and they want their pieces of the pie from Tavan Tolgoi too. And the main rival, the MPP already started their election campaign, and they chose their main slogan: Mongolia is for Mongolians. That is very promising for the Mongolian Consortium of 999 companies, which is dominated by the MDP people. If this will happen, these people might take huge shares of Tavan Tolgoi and they will secure their successful landing on parliamentary seats in 2012. Of course, the fate of the coalition Government is in the hands of the MDP. If the Mongolian Democratic Party can redistribute welfare and power without leaving the coalition, then the Government will survive. If not, we will have the MPP’s Government and there might be a great chance that the MDP will win the 2012 parliamentary elections.
Let go back to why the coalition Government was created. The Mongolian Democratic Party (MDP) lost in parliamentary elections. Then Mongolia had the bloody 1st of July events and there was a military curfew for several days. Mongolia was facing turmoil for the next four years and we expected a fight within Parliament and a fight between the President and Parliament.
But Mr. S. Bayar, Chairman of the MPRP persuaded his own party and he invited the MDP to join the coalition government. The newly elected Chairman of the MDP, Mr. N. Altankhuyag brought his members to the Mongolian Government. He tried to please every fraction within the MDP. Mr. N. Altankhuyag invited Mr. S. Bayartsogt to be Minister of Finance, Mr. L. Gansukh as Minister of Environment, Mr. L. Bold as Minister of Defense, Mr. Kh. Battulga as Minister of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development and Mr. S. Lamba as Minister of Health. Most of them accepted straight away with great pleasure, but a few of them played some political games.
With the Coalition Government, the Oyu Tolgoi agreement was passed by the Mongolian Parliament. Three Ministers put their signatures there: Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Mr. D. Zorigt, Minister of Finance, Mr. S. Bayartsogt, and Minister of Environment, Mr. L. Gansukh. Two MDP ministers and one MPRP minister closed the deal with Ivanhoe Mines.
Now it seems that these three people will close the deal over Tavan Tolgoi. But MDP people are starting to say that this is too much for Mr. S. Bayartsogt, and Mr. L. Gansukh.
With the recent success of the IPO of Energy Resources, Mongolian business people and most importantly the Mongolian Government, understands that the mineral resources industry is the key point for future business success in Mongolia. Before that, every Mongolian businessman wanted to produce vodka, which was a cash cow business. Now you cannot compare the margins from the vodka business with any mining project.
Therefore, the MDP people are demanding their piece of the pie from mining projects. For example, Mr. N. Batbayar, Member of Parliament from the MDP, used to run a successful business. Many people know him as Fortuna Batbayar, rather than N. Batbayar. (Fortuna is the name of his company). There are many other MDP business people, who were financing the MDP over the last 20 years. Of course, the success of the MDP, based on their financial support, now have many MDP members receiving many medals and titles from the “first democratic” President of Mongolia, Mr. Ts. Elbegdorj. Unfortunately, business cannot flourish from medals, business needs fat government contracts, free government assets etc.
There are also some unhappy people within the MDP ministers as well. Some of them are holding some ministerial empty bags. For example, Mr. L. Bold is the Minister of Defense, he also owns the Bodi Group with the biggest Mongolian Bank-Golomt bank. Mongolia is not the United States; we have a very tiny military budget.
Finally, there are many business people who support the MDP and they want their pieces of the pie from Tavan Tolgoi too. And the main rival, the MPP already started their election campaign, and they chose their main slogan: Mongolia is for Mongolians. That is very promising for the Mongolian Consortium of 999 companies, which is dominated by the MDP people. If this will happen, these people might take huge shares of Tavan Tolgoi and they will secure their successful landing on parliamentary seats in 2012. Of course, the fate of the coalition Government is in the hands of the MDP. If the Mongolian Democratic Party can redistribute welfare and power without leaving the coalition, then the Government will survive. If not, we will have the MPP’s Government and there might be a great chance that the MDP will win the 2012 parliamentary elections.
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