Guest post: what to look for in Mongolia’s presidential candidates
With three candidates declared for Mongolia’s presidential election a month from now, one of the issues that will be watched most closely from abroad is the candidates’ positions on large-scale mining projects. Much (foreign) ink will be spilled describing all three candidates as “resource nationalists” of various stripes.
Mongolia’s general election commission last week confirmed the candidacies of the incumbent, Ts Elbegdorj (Democratic Party), B Bat-Erdene (Mongolian People’s Party) and N Udval (Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party) in the June 26 election.
Bat-Erdene and especially Udval are likely to make statements in the campaign that will reinforce the standard interpretation of Mongolian politics by occasional observers – that it is driven by resource nationalism. And while it initially looked as though President Elbegdorj would easily be re-elected, the credibility of Bat-Erdene as a candidate and the addition of a third candidate complicates matters.
Elbegdorj’s long executive experience in parliament and the presidency has made him aware of the impact that public musings have on foreign investment and thus ultimately on the prosperity of Mongolians. So he is likely to be more circumspect not only in his statements but also in his policies. While he initiated some of the contentious discussions this year over governance and operations at Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits, he appears to be genuine in a pursuit of solutions rather than cheap political points.
Bat-Erdene does not have enough of a policy profile to allow for predictions of the directions he might pursue in the campaign or as president. He is prominently associated with the “Law on the Prohibition of Mining Operations at Headwaters of Rivers, Protected Zones of Water Reservoirs and Forested Areas” (commonly known as the “Law with the Long Name”) which was intended to remove ecologically sensitive areas from the exploration and mining licensing process. While this law has been of some symbolic significance, which Bat-Erdene will certainly play up, it has been unevenly implemented. Much of the principle behind this law is laudable but it has given rise to concerns about post-hoc expropriation and the potential for corruption in its application.
Udval, on the other hand, may be most likely to actually fit in the category of “resource nationalism”, though not as a coherent ideology or movement but rather for electoral expediency. Her candidacy is noticeable for representing the first nomination of a woman in a presidential election. With three candidates in the running, there is the possibility of a July 10 run-off if no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the valid votes cast by 1.9m eligible voters.
While the campaign will be watched by foreign investors, of course, it is run for the benefit of Mongolians. From a voters’ perspective, the campaign will certainly bring some electioneering with revelations about the candidates’ pasts, campaign finances, and shady advisors. None of this would come as a surprise to voters in any other democracy.
The likely substantive focus of the campaign will be on the resource sector and on candidates’ personalities. In contrast to foreign investors, Mongolians themselves may be more concerned with the immediate benefits they are seeking from resource projects. However, the limited powers of the president under Mongolia’s semi-presidential system mean that candidates will have relatively little to say about policy. Areas where the presidency does hold significant power are in security and foreign policy, as well as in making appointments to various state offices, most notably, perhaps, the judicial system.
Elbegdorj will surely emphasize judicial reform, continuing to claim “clean government” as a hallmark of the Democratic Party. He will also point to his international achievements, such as the hosting of the Community of Democracies, which bolster his claims to the leadership qualities expected of a president who serves as an important symbol of Mongolian democracy.
In early campaign events, Bat-Erdene has shown himself to be adroit on the political stage and to exude statesman-like qualities beyond his status as an epic wrestling champion. However, his main appeal will stem from his concern to uphold traditional Mongolian customs and values. He may also question the DP’s use of its power now that it controls all high offices in the country, and suggest that the cohabitation of an MPP president with a DP-led coalition government will offer important checks on DP power. This balance of the distribution of power may be the most important impact the election will have on the immediate political future of Mongolia.
The fact that Udval is perceived as a surrogate for jailed ex-president N Enkhbayarwhich will likely attract the support of loyalists but might not draw many additional votes, nor does it make the emergence of a block of women supporters likely. She was not elected to parliament in last year’s election and has not been particularly visible as health minister in the coalition government, suggesting a limited personal appeal in an election where personality will be a big factor.
Past presidential elections have been closely fought. The addition of Udval as a third candidate makes a run-off likely. Neither of the two front runners in the election, Elbegdorj still having an edge over Bat-Erdene, would bring radical change to Mongolian politics. However, the nomination of Bat-Erdene who has not been among the “usual suspects” in Mongolia politics, plus the dynamics of a three-way race, at least promise an interesting campaign and an election worth watching.
[This post has been corrected to reflect the fact that this year's presidential election will not, in fact, be Mongolia's first with more than two candidates. See comment from Julian Dierkes below.]
Julian Dierkes is associate professor at the Institute of Asian Research, University of British Colombia
Mongolia’s general election commission last week confirmed the candidacies of the incumbent, Ts Elbegdorj (Democratic Party), B Bat-Erdene (Mongolian People’s Party) and N Udval (Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party) in the June 26 election.
Bat-Erdene and especially Udval are likely to make statements in the campaign that will reinforce the standard interpretation of Mongolian politics by occasional observers – that it is driven by resource nationalism. And while it initially looked as though President Elbegdorj would easily be re-elected, the credibility of Bat-Erdene as a candidate and the addition of a third candidate complicates matters.
Elbegdorj’s long executive experience in parliament and the presidency has made him aware of the impact that public musings have on foreign investment and thus ultimately on the prosperity of Mongolians. So he is likely to be more circumspect not only in his statements but also in his policies. While he initiated some of the contentious discussions this year over governance and operations at Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits, he appears to be genuine in a pursuit of solutions rather than cheap political points.
Bat-Erdene does not have enough of a policy profile to allow for predictions of the directions he might pursue in the campaign or as president. He is prominently associated with the “Law on the Prohibition of Mining Operations at Headwaters of Rivers, Protected Zones of Water Reservoirs and Forested Areas” (commonly known as the “Law with the Long Name”) which was intended to remove ecologically sensitive areas from the exploration and mining licensing process. While this law has been of some symbolic significance, which Bat-Erdene will certainly play up, it has been unevenly implemented. Much of the principle behind this law is laudable but it has given rise to concerns about post-hoc expropriation and the potential for corruption in its application.
Udval, on the other hand, may be most likely to actually fit in the category of “resource nationalism”, though not as a coherent ideology or movement but rather for electoral expediency. Her candidacy is noticeable for representing the first nomination of a woman in a presidential election. With three candidates in the running, there is the possibility of a July 10 run-off if no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the valid votes cast by 1.9m eligible voters.
While the campaign will be watched by foreign investors, of course, it is run for the benefit of Mongolians. From a voters’ perspective, the campaign will certainly bring some electioneering with revelations about the candidates’ pasts, campaign finances, and shady advisors. None of this would come as a surprise to voters in any other democracy.
The likely substantive focus of the campaign will be on the resource sector and on candidates’ personalities. In contrast to foreign investors, Mongolians themselves may be more concerned with the immediate benefits they are seeking from resource projects. However, the limited powers of the president under Mongolia’s semi-presidential system mean that candidates will have relatively little to say about policy. Areas where the presidency does hold significant power are in security and foreign policy, as well as in making appointments to various state offices, most notably, perhaps, the judicial system.
Elbegdorj will surely emphasize judicial reform, continuing to claim “clean government” as a hallmark of the Democratic Party. He will also point to his international achievements, such as the hosting of the Community of Democracies, which bolster his claims to the leadership qualities expected of a president who serves as an important symbol of Mongolian democracy.
In early campaign events, Bat-Erdene has shown himself to be adroit on the political stage and to exude statesman-like qualities beyond his status as an epic wrestling champion. However, his main appeal will stem from his concern to uphold traditional Mongolian customs and values. He may also question the DP’s use of its power now that it controls all high offices in the country, and suggest that the cohabitation of an MPP president with a DP-led coalition government will offer important checks on DP power. This balance of the distribution of power may be the most important impact the election will have on the immediate political future of Mongolia.
The fact that Udval is perceived as a surrogate for jailed ex-president N Enkhbayarwhich will likely attract the support of loyalists but might not draw many additional votes, nor does it make the emergence of a block of women supporters likely. She was not elected to parliament in last year’s election and has not been particularly visible as health minister in the coalition government, suggesting a limited personal appeal in an election where personality will be a big factor.
Past presidential elections have been closely fought. The addition of Udval as a third candidate makes a run-off likely. Neither of the two front runners in the election, Elbegdorj still having an edge over Bat-Erdene, would bring radical change to Mongolian politics. However, the nomination of Bat-Erdene who has not been among the “usual suspects” in Mongolia politics, plus the dynamics of a three-way race, at least promise an interesting campaign and an election worth watching.
[This post has been corrected to reflect the fact that this year's presidential election will not, in fact, be Mongolia's first with more than two candidates. See comment from Julian Dierkes below.]
Julian Dierkes is associate professor at the Institute of Asian Research, University of British Colombia
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