Mongolia as Minegolia? Paying the Price

Mineral riches beneath the arid soil of Mongolia could soon make the sparsely populated country the world’s fastest-growing economy.

There are different ways of looking at this. The video above focuses on ruined landscapes and displaced herders. The one below emphasizes the economic benefit of exporting mineral riches to China.

The first, released by the European environmental groups C.E.E. Bankwatch Network, Urgewald and O T Watch, anticipates the repercussions from the promised public offering of shares in Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, a state-run company that controls one of the world’s richest coal deposits. The second is an upbeat advertisement for a northern iron ore mine, showing a microcosm of the mining boom that has been accelerating since this former Soviet satellite began to emerge as a free-market economy.

How accurately do these dueling worldviews anticipate the economic gains or the environmental and social costs? Can Mongolia avoid the scarred landscapes of West Virginia or Russia’s Sakhalin Island and the acid drainage into watersheds in South Africa and Indonesia?

The first video envisions a bleak future of lost nomadic livelihoods and an expansion of the tent cities in Ulan Bator, swelled by herders who could not keep their herds. Its tone echoes the citation that accompanied the awarding of the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize to the herder and environmental activist Tseetsegee Munkhbayar in 2007.

The potential environmental troubles on the open steppes, the site of much of the mining activity, are mirrored by the dwindling of the country’s forests, according to a recent World Bank review.

Mr. Munkhbayar’s group, the United Movement of Mongolian Rivers and Lakes, sued the country’s government for failing to protect watersheds and forests as required by a 2009 law. Last fall, the country’s Supreme Court ordered the government to enforce its environmental laws.

An article in the Guardian newspaper last November quoted a herder as saying that the dust kicked up by mining vehicles and extraction machines “makes us cough.”

“Even the animals cough,” he said. “The animals eat the dusty grass. Then the humans eat the poisoned animals. Soon it will be impossible for us to stay here.”

Yet the chief executive of the state mining company has emphasized that the company will pass out shares to all Mongolians when a public offering is made this spring.

The second video is a paean to industry, with stirring music and images of large trucks on parade and miners comfortably at rest in a more prosperous tent city. The tone evokes over-the-top Soviet-era inspirational films about worker heroes and the glories of Communism, but here it is the company that is the hero.

The economic victories and machinations around the country’s mining bounty are reflected a bit more straightforwardly in daily reports from the Mongolian Metal Exchange or the Business Council of Mongolia. The latter’s Web page has been buzzing with the news of the final steps in consolidation of control over the Oyu Tolgoi mine and its gold and copper deposits by Rio Tinto, the mining giant.

The Oyu Tolgoi mine, whose name means “turquoise hill,” is one of the richest known in Mongolia. The Guardian has reported that the revenue from the total output of its minerals may amount to $200 billion and eventually represent one-third of Mongolia’s gross domestic product, which is now only about $2,500 for each of the country’s 2.8 million people.

At least one group, the Zorig Foundation, has tried to promote a future that is not a wasteland environmentally or economically through its work with the Oyu Tolgoi scholarship program. This program offers undergraduate and graduate study overseas in subjects like mining engineering and environmental and earth sciences. At the same time, the foundation is increasingly turning its attention to identifying and curbing government corruption, which is exacerbated by the mineral boom.

One of the most sober overviews of Mongolia’s prospects — albeit without the mournful music or the images of bedraggled camels in the first video — was offered by The Economist. Its take, boiled down, is that to pay for dreams of prosperity. “Mongolia is being dug up and sold to China.”

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