Is it still worth investing in Ulaanbaatar property?

Is it still worth investing in Ulaanbaatar property?

If so, what types of Mongolian property investment makes the most sense?

As the summer economic growth period is reaching its traditional zenith, property prices are yet again on the slow path upwards. For all intents and purposes, it seems that Mongolia’s recession blues are over to be replaced by a new wave of optimism.

Is this growth sustainable and does the UB real estate market still makes investment sense?

The crisis seems to have had a lasting impact on Mongolia’s investment environment; it has served its purpose as a wake up jolt, demonstrating Mongolia’s heavy vulnerability to international economic swings with it’s over reliance on commodity prices as a catalyst for economic growth. As those commodity prices dropped, Mongolia quickly found itself in an unfamiliar situation of recession followed by a long period of economic confusion. The sudden lack of liquidity in Mongolia’s industries and the subsequent general loss of confidence negatively impacted property prices throughout the capital. The economic loss forced Mongolia to kick start the economy by opening itself up to foreign investments while presenting a stable political front.

Today, it seems that the euphoria of the care free days has gone away to be replaced by more sophisticated and considered investment strategies. Real estate prices are still generally below pre-crisis levels (by 20 to 40% depending on the type of property) but the market is slowly showing distinct signs of recovery.

Challenges of the Ulaanbaatar real estate market.

Looking at the market from an outsider’s perspective, you may be forgiven for thinking that it is back in full swing with rental yields yet again advertised at staggeringly high levels along with heavy promotion of ambitious construction projects. This is not necessarily an accurate picture of what is happening on the ground.

Those staggeringly high returns on investments are rarely realized, while many properties sit empty for months post-completion, that is if they ever do reach completion. Walk into the office of any one of the Mongolian construction companies in Ulaanbaatar and you will be shown futuristic architectural drawings depicting tall, graceful, steel and glass skyscrapers, each more elegant and over-sized than the last. If, on the other hand, you were to ask about financing for those projects, you will invariably find that it is still wanting, the financial tools and systems to capitalize on such projects are yet to be created or utilized.

This is possibly a good thing as it seems that the size and growth potential of the market is consistently overestimated. The city abounds with examples of this extraordinary lack of foresight. Empty commercial buildings litter the landscape; deserted shopping malls are legion, hotels are being built left, right and center with no clear concept as to who will fill those hundreds of new luxury rooms. To give but a few example, in the new Jiguur Grand Plaza, both the retail and office space is mostly vacant; the brand spanking new Ulaanbaatar Delguur has sufficient empty space to play car football on its marble floors; the Eko construction office tower has not yet dared to open as they fear that it will be entirely populated by ghosts.

New hotel opening rumours are equally prolific, while it seems that the Hilton project has been canceled, the Shangri-La Hotel is forging ahead while the Radisson hotel is itself slated for completion in 2011. Both a Sheraton and a Best Western hotel also seem to be in the plans while a Holiday Inn may take over an existing hotel. In total, over a thousand new hotel rooms are due to open in the coming few years; this in a country that only has a 4 months long tourism season, mostly backpackers. Will there be sufficient business travelers to reach the required 80% levels of occupancy year round?

Despite the oversupply of property in some segments of the market, today’s real estate market is more mature than ever, some areas as well as some types of properties are still likely to witness strong growth while other segments of the market will remain stagnant for the foreseeable future, potential can be seen in particular within parts of the residential property as well as the low cost housing sectors.

What are the predictions on the Ulaanbaatar Property Market?

Further criticism of the real estate market in Ulaanbaatar could be levied; it is currently segmented into a strong domestic sector, with generally lower prices but dedicated to owner’s self occupation while another, shadow property investment sector is itself growing alarmingly fast.

This property investment sector is generally concentrated around the heart of the city and the Zaisan areas. It is based around those investors who regularly buy property with the specific aim of renting to expatriate corporate tenants. This is gradually leading to an increasingly artificially inflated and detached property market. As more investment pours into the sector, prices are automatically artificially inflated, thus leading to further inflation in rental rates as investors need to justify their return on investment, which in turn leads to continued increases in purchase prices.

This snowball effect is further compounded by considerable (and slightly misplaced) public enthusiasm about the estimated number of executive expats coming into the country; those figures seem to be consistently inflated and thus, indirectly, contribute to the potential creation of a new property bubble. Despite all of the above, the market is not all despair and missed opportunities; there are a number of distinct and attractive possibilities that present themselves for both medium to long term investments.

The main factor driving this growth is of course speculation in the mining boom currently gripping the country. If Mongolia keeps heading on the path of welcoming foreign investments and safeguarding their rights and investments in the same manner as it safeguards those of Mongolians, it is likely that Mongolia as a whole will remain an attractive investment destination. Generally speaking, a bubble is unlikely to happen in the near future (famous last words), as the market further matures along with the general state of the economy, a greater proportion of the Mongolian population will become involved and thus create new potential tenants.

Furthermore, the Millennium Challenge Account property rights program will, if completed as planned, signal the start of a real mortgage financial industry in Mongolia, thus, yet again, creating a brand new customer base.

Beyond that, further growth in the property market is dependent on the diversification of the economy, moving away from a complete reliance on commodity prices as well as retaining its attractive tax regime. While the increasing levels of urbanization currently experienced in Mongolia’s cities are unlikely to have an impact on medium to high grade properties as this urbanization is concentrated in the ger areas of Ulaanbaatar, it presents gigantic opportunities in the low to mid housing sectors.

What is the basis of investing in Ulaanbaatar property?

Investment opportunities of all sizes are readily available in Ulaanbaatar, the larger proportional returns are often made by investing relatively larger amounts into the market (bearing in mind that the market is still relatively tiny).

For instance, as the influx of expats in the city keeps growing exponentially, there is a considerable need for a (real) high end serviced apartment provider to enter the market. While this is considered to be a niche offering, it is one whose demand is not currently being met. While a few buildings such as the Gandirs Towers and the Golomt Towers profess to have serviced apartments, those are usually standard apartments of mid-level comfort that are available for short term rent, but provide no extra services that would be deemed essential within serviced apartments. A few of the hotels also profess to have serviced apartments but those are generally slightly bigger or better appointed hotel rooms available at a higher price, not a sustainable option for anyone but the best heeled of executives.

When considering smaller investment amounts, it is important to bear in mind that a good investment is one that has a solid exit strategy.

Essentially it must be a property that remains attractive to the domestic market and is therefore liquid. For instance, it is always a good idea when buying into a compound development to check the ratio of Mongolian owners to foreign owners, a ratio of at least 70% of Mongolian owners is essential to be able to establish a viable exit strategy. The same goes for checking the percentage of properties that is or will be on the market available for rent within the residential compound versus how many owners plan to live in their properties.

The importance of location (location, location) cannot be overestimated in Ulaanbaatar. There are two areas within the Ulaanbaatar city center that have proven over the years to be good property investment areas, namely the very heart of the city center around the State Department Store (the so called 7 courtyards) as well as the “Embassy Area” around the Star Apartments compound.

While those areas are geographically small, they are very popular with foreign tenants as well as being attractive to the Mongolian property buyer (your exit strategy).

It seems that the optimum size for smaller real estate investment is for a 2 bedroom apartment (around 100sqms) in the city center or a large apartment 150 to 200sqms outside of the city (Zaisan or Embassy areas). This seems to be the part of the market that is the most resilient and weathers well a storm as it is attractive to a larger proportion of the market while remaining attractive to Mongolian buyers.

What are the expat tenant demographics for Ulaanbaatar?

The Expatriate tenants that live in Ulaanbaatar seem to be divided into various segments:

1. The self-employed or low paid expat, with a budget of 250USD to 750USD who will live in a smaller apartment in the city center or just on the outskirts of the city, requires a 1 bedroom studio or furnished apartment for an average duration of 6 months to a year. Very seasonal, represents about 40% of the market.

2. The younger expat, usually alone, with a budget of around 750USD to 1,500USD who wants to live in the heart of the action, within spitting distance of the State Department Store. Requires a 1 to 2 bedroom furnished apartment for an average duration of 2 years. Represents about 35% of the market.

3. The slightly older expat, usually with a partner, has a budget of around 1,500USD to 2,700USD, wants to live in a quiet neighborhood but still within walking distance of the main points of attraction. The embassy area is a firm favourite, usually requires 2 to 3 bedrooms, furnished. Average length of stay in Mongolia is 2 to 3 years. Represents about 15% of the market.

4. The established executive expat with a family, has a budget of 2,500USD up to 3,500USD, wants to live close to the international school for the kids as well as the fresh air. Prefers the Zaisan area, requires at least 2 bedrooms but up to 4 bedrooms is the preferred, generally furnished but not always. Would love to have a house in a secure compound. May stay in Mongolia for 3 or more years. Represents about 8% of the market.

5. The senior executive or the high ranking diplomat. Usually comes to Mongolia for long term assignments (up to 5 years), has a comfortable budget up to 6,000USD, needs a sizable property with up to 5 bedrooms, prefers unfurnished, security and comfort is a must. Wants to live in the Star Apartments, the Nomin Tenger or a penthouse in the Royal County. Represents no more than 2% of the market.

What sort of Ulaanbaatar property investments are viable?

When considering an investment into any of those sectors, a realistic net rental yield of 9% to 16% (outside of agency fees but including taxes) is to be expected; unique properties can commend a higher return on investment but present a greater inherent risk. Generally speaking, while higher rates of return are possible, it is risky to purchase off plan, Ulaanbaatar is a graveyard of unfinished carcasses and broken dreams, lengthy construction delays are all too common, for every success story, three others have failed.

A few buildings never the less present good potential, for instance, the Regency Residence is likely to become upon completion one of the best residential properties in Ulaanbaatar, it is unique in that it will introduce the concept of a communal living space to the building, an essential feature that has been strangely lacking in all other residential constructions in Ulaanbaatar. The Regency is also well located in an area that will grow considerably in value over the next few years. With the main hotels being built nearby (Shangri-la and Radisson), the UN moving their HQ there and the Star Apartments already firmly established as the leading property in Ulaanbaatar.

Other good investment strategies including buying into “charming apartments with period features but in need of slight improvements” (as a real estate agent might say), essentially the older Russian apartments that are located within the 40K buildings. They are currently slightly undervalued, well built, very central (as long as you buy within the 7 courtyards), have high ceilings and are a firm favourite with younger expat tenants as long as they are well renovated and comfortably furnished. To give a general idea, it is possible to buy one of those older apartments, renovate and furnish it for between 55,000USD up to 100,000USD than rent it for 500USD up to 1,500USD monthly fee, thus generating an average net rental yield of around 13%. They are relatively low risk as they are easy to resell within the domestic market and will always have a high rate of demand regardless of the direction taken by the economy. It is also expected that they will have the highest proportional rate of capital gain, in particular if the rumoured city center renovation projects are carried out.

The Zaisan area has been a popular investment destination for a few years now but will prices in the area keep rising? It is more than likely that prices within this area have now reached a ceiling price and are unlikely to rise much further. Once properties within Zaisan have filled up, other suburbs around Ulaanbaatar will become increasingly popular and thus create new attractive residential areas. The risk associated with investing within the suburbs of Ulaanbaatar is that suburbs are forever expanding into a virtually limitless area of land, thus new supply can always be made available if the demand exists. Demand will thus therefore always be matched by supply.

Further to this, the old land abuses scandals are resurfacing yet again, the Zaisan protected area has always had considerable issues regarding the legality of constructions within the area. Indeed only a few immovable property certificates have been issued overall, while it is likely that this issue will be resolved in the near future, it is an added uncertainty in a market that can ill afford it.

Beyond traditional investments in residential or commercial properties, vast opportunities also exist for those capable of spotting emerging demand, this includes areas such as creating a chain of heated parking structures within the city center of Ulaanbaatar. It would, for example be easy enough to buy back failed property developments carcasses within strategic areas of the city and turn them into multistory parking structures where customers would then pay per use or through membership.
In conclusion…

The type of investment you make will be heavily reliant on the type of return you wish to generate, mostly rental yield, mostly capital gain or a mix of both. For instance, buying one of the 40K apartments close to the department store is a mix of both while purchasing a property in the embassy area is mostly based on future capital gain. The Zaisan area investment will be primarily based on a rental yield return on investment.

Achieving a good rate of return in a property market such as Ulaanbaatar is not overly complicated; the dynamics are relatively simple to understand while there are only a few players active in the market. Having said this, there are no get rich quick solutions, investments should be made with a medium to long term view (3 to 6 years) and considered carefully to adhere to certain rules such as location and type of investment, Ulaanbaatar is a small city with an even smaller property market.

Of course, those investors that seek additional thrills (and associated greater potential returns) should look beyond Ulaanbaatar towards those cities that are the center of the new mining boom such as Dalanzadgad, Khan Bogd and others in the South Gobi region but this is the subject of a future article….

For more information about the Ulaanbaatar Property Market, please visit the Mongolian Property Resources of M.A.D. or contact this articles author: Christopher de Gruben

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