Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia
Mongolia’s external trade deficit rang in at US$139.6mn as imports surged 163.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January.
Exports increased by a healthy 27.6% y-o-y in the same period to total US$208.6mn, which was not enough to outstrip the nominal value of imports, which reached US$348.2mn. In 2011, we are forecasting the current account deficit to narrow to 2.5% of GDP, from an estimated 3.8% shortfall in 2010, as we expect growing coal exports will help narrow the merchandise trade deficit. That said, and despite this development in the trade account, we reiterate our core view that the current account will move into surplus in 2013 when the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold project experiences its first full year of production.
Exports increased by a healthy 27.6% y-o-y in the same period to total US$208.6mn, which was not enough to outstrip the nominal value of imports, which reached US$348.2mn. In 2011, we are forecasting the current account deficit to narrow to 2.5% of GDP, from an estimated 3.8% shortfall in 2010, as we expect growing coal exports will help narrow the merchandise trade deficit. That said, and despite this development in the trade account, we reiterate our core view that the current account will move into surplus in 2013 when the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold project experiences its first full year of production.
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