Elbegdorj scrapes home

SINCE throwing off Soviet domination and embracing democracy 23 years ago, Mongolians have got used to electing their leaders. But their sixth free presidential election, held on June 26th, marked something of a departure from the high drama of earlier contests. This time there was less acrimony, less campaign buzz, and lower voter participation. Yet for the incumbent president, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, turnout was enough to avoid an invalid result, and his support, at 50.9%, was—just barely—enough to avoid a run-off.

Mr Elbegdorj, of the Democratic Party (DP) held off two rivals. One was Badmaanyambuu Bat-Erdene, a renowned national wrestling champion and a three-term member of parliament from the former ruling party, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The other was Mongolia’s first female candidate for the presidency, Natsag Udval of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP), which splintered from the MPP in 2011. She is the nation’s health minister, and a close ally of Nambariin Enkhbayar, a former president and prime minister, who is now in the middle of a two-and-a-half-year jail sentence for corruption.

Mr Bat-Erdene received 42.5% of the vote and Ms Udval 6.6%, according to preliminary results from the election commission. Mr Elbegdorj’s victory cements the DP’s political dominance, giving it control of the presidency, the prime minister’s office and the parliamentary speakership. That dominance will probably last until the next parliamentary election in 2016.

Oyungerel Tsedevdamba, a DP member of parliament representing a district in the south of the capital, Ulaanbaatar, said that since her party had only ever enjoyed such control for two single-year stints during the 23 years of democratic rule, it now had an unprecedented opportunity. “The DP finally has the chance to show what it can do. For the first time we will really be allowed to implement our programme,” she said at the party’s jubilant campaign headquarters late on election night.

That programme features promises that were also touted by the other candidates, on issues that are widely recognised by businessmen and development experts in Mongolia and abroad as most important to the nation’s future. These are the management of the vast mining and resource boom, improvements in transport and power infrastructure and coping with the stubborn prevalence of corruption.

The biggest emblem of Mongolia’s stalled development is the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper and gold mine in the Gobi desert. Rio Tinto, a mining giant, has invested more than $6 billion in the project but has been frustrated by repeated, highly politicised efforts by the Mongolian authorities to restructure the terms of their investment agreement with Rio’s subsidiary. Twice in recent weeks the government has delayed the mine’s inaugural shipment of copper. Moody’s, a large ratings agency, warns that the delay “lowers investor confidence and underscores institutional weaknesses” in Mongolia.

Olivier Descamps, a managing director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development with responsibility for Mongolia, sees hopeful signs that the country is improving transparency but says the OT mine “is the ultimate test” of Mongolia’s ability to prove itself a reliable long-term partner for foreign investors.

Hopes run high that the DP’s victory will put an end to political squabbling over such projects. A new foreign-investment law has long been stalled. But, as he voted, Mr Elbegdorj predicted that its progress will be quicker after the election. “In the coming autumn session of parliament,” he said, “I hope you will have that law.”

Another highly touted initiative of Mr Eglbegdorj’s party has been the decentralisation of budgeting decisions. Julian Dierkes, a Mongolia analyst at the University of British Columbia, says moves to devolve spending decisions to province- and county-level authorities have been very popular in rural areas and certainly boosted votes for Mr Elbegdorj.

But some in the defeated MPP worry that the concentration of power in the hands of the DP, along with the term limit that prevents Mr Elbegdorj from standing for the presidency again, could prove dangerous. They worry he might engage in an unhealthy attempt to use the presidency’s judicial powers to mount politically motivated corruption investigations. Political rivals have reason to worry. But foreign investors are conscious that, in a campaign marked by appeals to resource nationalism from all three candidates, the president’s was the most moderate voice. They, at least, will be relieved at his victory.