"Mongolia Mining Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research
Mongolia is set for a rapid increase in production in gold, copper and coal leading to fast growth in the mining sector. We expect that mining sector output will grow to US$9.9bn by 2014, marking a fourfold increase from 2010, with the majority of the increase occurring in 2013 and 2014 as the Oyu Tolgoi mine comes online.
Rapid Growth Across All Metals
Over the last five years Mongolia's copper production has been static and gold production has fallen significantly. However these trends are set to radically change with rapid rates of growth over the coming years, especially in 2013. From 2010 to 2014 we forecast an annual average growth rate of 42% in gold output to reach 950kozpa, and 35% growth in copper production to 680ktpa. The phenomenal rates of growth in copper and gold output will be largely driven by the Oyu Tolgoi mine, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines, which is due to come online in 2013.
We forecast an annual average growth rate of 52% in coal output reaching 12.5mnt by 2014. This increase will be driven by South Gobi, a subsidiary of Ivanhoe, which is increasing production at Ovoot Tolgoi, the country's largest coal mine, to 6.5mtpa (million tonnes per annum) by 2014. Again, this will reverse the decline experienced over the last three years (2007-2009). Over the longer term, coal output has the potential to grow further as the Tavant Tolgoi mine, currently owned by the Mongolian government, it is due to commence output by 2015. The annual production figures have yet to be released but the mine is believed to contain 6bnt (billion tonnes) of reserves, an enormous quantity. Aside from these developments, Mongolia has great potential for further growth in mining output across all metals as very little of the country has been mapped. Therefore, it is likely that significant deposits of minerals are yet to be discovered.
Regulatory Environment
Mongolia has made significant progress over the last decade to improve its business environment. Most importantly, the government recently withdrew the 68% windfall tax which was a great impediment to foreign investment into the country. The repeal of the tax led to a swathe of investment including the completion of the Oyu Tolgoi agreement, which will bring billions of dollars of investment into the country. Having said that, there have been a couple of less positive minor developments. The government recently suspended almost half of the country's mining licenses on environmental grounds having previously cancelled two exploration licenses for the Canadian miner Khan Resources Inc.
Key Players
Mongolia's mining sector is dominated by Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe, which operate the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine. Other smaller companies are active including Centerra Gold and Erdene Gold, both of which have exploration projects. We expect the mining sector to become more fragmented as numerous companies are planning to enter into mining in Mongolia, encouraged by the huge mineral deposits the country contains.
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Mongolia Political SWOT
- Mongolia Economic SWOT
- Mongolia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends Analysis
- Regulatory Structure
- Monthly Roundup: Continued Exploration Due To Strong Earnings
- Table: Expansion Plans
- Table: Tax Developments
- Table: Mining Sector Developments
- Output To Grow Rapidly Over Forecast Period
- Table: Mongolia Mining Industry, 2007-2014
- Copper Production Set For Phenomenal Growth
- Table:Growth In Copper Output
- On The Cusp Of A Golden Age
- Table: Gold Output By Mine
- Table: Planned Gold Projects
- Table: Growth In Gold Output
- Coal Output Set For Sharp Increase
- Table: Current Coal Operations
- Table: Exploration Projects
- Table: Growth In Coal Production
- Fluorspar Output Set For Modest Growth
- Table: Planned Fluorspar Projects
- Table: Growth In Fluorspar Production
Business Environment
- Table: Europe Business Environment
- Russia
- Kazakhstan
- Mongolia
- Romania
Political Environment
- Domestic Politics
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Copper To Average US$8,200/tonne In 2011
- Table: BMI Copper Forecast
- Table: Copper
- Commodities Forecast - Gold To Average US$1,400/oz In 2011
- Table: BMI Gold Forecast
- Table: Gold
- Commodities Forecast - Tin To Average US$24,000/tonne In 2011
- Table: BMI Tin Forecast
- Table: Tin, 2006-2012
- Mongolia's Mining Industry
- Table: Mongolia Mining Industry, 2007-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Company Statistics - March 2010 (Us$Mn)
Company Monitor
- Ivanhoe Mines Ltd
- Erdene Resource Development Ltd
- Rio Tinto
- Centerra Gold
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions
- Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth % Chg Y-O-Y
- Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast
- Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
- Table: Consensus Forecasts
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
- Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
# # #
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
Rapid Growth Across All Metals
Over the last five years Mongolia's copper production has been static and gold production has fallen significantly. However these trends are set to radically change with rapid rates of growth over the coming years, especially in 2013. From 2010 to 2014 we forecast an annual average growth rate of 42% in gold output to reach 950kozpa, and 35% growth in copper production to 680ktpa. The phenomenal rates of growth in copper and gold output will be largely driven by the Oyu Tolgoi mine, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines, which is due to come online in 2013.
We forecast an annual average growth rate of 52% in coal output reaching 12.5mnt by 2014. This increase will be driven by South Gobi, a subsidiary of Ivanhoe, which is increasing production at Ovoot Tolgoi, the country's largest coal mine, to 6.5mtpa (million tonnes per annum) by 2014. Again, this will reverse the decline experienced over the last three years (2007-2009). Over the longer term, coal output has the potential to grow further as the Tavant Tolgoi mine, currently owned by the Mongolian government, it is due to commence output by 2015. The annual production figures have yet to be released but the mine is believed to contain 6bnt (billion tonnes) of reserves, an enormous quantity. Aside from these developments, Mongolia has great potential for further growth in mining output across all metals as very little of the country has been mapped. Therefore, it is likely that significant deposits of minerals are yet to be discovered.
Regulatory Environment
Mongolia has made significant progress over the last decade to improve its business environment. Most importantly, the government recently withdrew the 68% windfall tax which was a great impediment to foreign investment into the country. The repeal of the tax led to a swathe of investment including the completion of the Oyu Tolgoi agreement, which will bring billions of dollars of investment into the country. Having said that, there have been a couple of less positive minor developments. The government recently suspended almost half of the country's mining licenses on environmental grounds having previously cancelled two exploration licenses for the Canadian miner Khan Resources Inc.
Key Players
Mongolia's mining sector is dominated by Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe, which operate the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine. Other smaller companies are active including Centerra Gold and Erdene Gold, both of which have exploration projects. We expect the mining sector to become more fragmented as numerous companies are planning to enter into mining in Mongolia, encouraged by the huge mineral deposits the country contains.
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Mongolia Political SWOT
- Mongolia Economic SWOT
- Mongolia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends Analysis
- Regulatory Structure
- Monthly Roundup: Continued Exploration Due To Strong Earnings
- Table: Expansion Plans
- Table: Tax Developments
- Table: Mining Sector Developments
- Output To Grow Rapidly Over Forecast Period
- Table: Mongolia Mining Industry, 2007-2014
- Copper Production Set For Phenomenal Growth
- Table:Growth In Copper Output
- On The Cusp Of A Golden Age
- Table: Gold Output By Mine
- Table: Planned Gold Projects
- Table: Growth In Gold Output
- Coal Output Set For Sharp Increase
- Table: Current Coal Operations
- Table: Exploration Projects
- Table: Growth In Coal Production
- Fluorspar Output Set For Modest Growth
- Table: Planned Fluorspar Projects
- Table: Growth In Fluorspar Production
Business Environment
- Table: Europe Business Environment
- Russia
- Kazakhstan
- Mongolia
- Romania
Political Environment
- Domestic Politics
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Copper To Average US$8,200/tonne In 2011
- Table: BMI Copper Forecast
- Table: Copper
- Commodities Forecast - Gold To Average US$1,400/oz In 2011
- Table: BMI Gold Forecast
- Table: Gold
- Commodities Forecast - Tin To Average US$24,000/tonne In 2011
- Table: BMI Tin Forecast
- Table: Tin, 2006-2012
- Mongolia's Mining Industry
- Table: Mongolia Mining Industry, 2007-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Company Statistics - March 2010 (Us$Mn)
Company Monitor
- Ivanhoe Mines Ltd
- Erdene Resource Development Ltd
- Rio Tinto
- Centerra Gold
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions
- Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth % Chg Y-O-Y
- Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast
- Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
- Table: Consensus Forecasts
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
- Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
# # #
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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