Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Mongolia Brief April 2, 2014



Democrats Recommence Monthly Meetings with Journalists
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) Members of the Democratic Party (DP) will hold a so-called "4:11" meeting with journalists Thursday.

It will run at the party's headquarters under a theme of "Smart city". Present will be DP Secretary-General Ts.Oyundari, DP Secretary O.Chuluunbileg, the Capital city Citizens Representatives Khural Chairperson D.Battulga and others.
Before some break, this meeting used to run on first Thursday of every month. 


Redraft of Law on Accounting Submitted
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The Finance Minister Ch.Ulaan submitted Tuesday to the parliament Speaker a new wording of the law on accounting.
This law has been amended several times--in 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2011--since it was passed by parliament in 1993.
The amendments aim at leveling-up of accounting and financial reporting of public entities and small and medium enterprises to international standards. Thus, great results will be achieved in financial activities, such as improved investments and financial attractiveness of enterprises, reduced risks to domestic investors and creditors, enhanced capital and financial markets and strengthened national economy, the Minister considers. 


Deputy PM Submits Bills to Parliament
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The Deputy Prime Minister D.Terbishdagva Tuesday submitted to the Speaker Z.Enkhbold draft laws on implementation of the 2012-2016 action programme of the government and on monitoring.
By the end of the previous year, the action programme’s realization showed 46.2 percent; in the first year of its term, the cabinet launched legal reforms and ran several works to refine a legal environment of some sectors and worked out designs, plans and feasibilities of great construction works, he said. Other works have been done in several phases to run procurement and to implement goals of renewing norms and standards, Terbishdagva added.
In addition, achievements are gained in constructing auto roads, providing people with apartments, supporting local authorities, creating jobs, regularizing prices of consumer goods, developing small- and middle-sized productions and in supporting vulnerable strata.
The bill on monitoring reflects a legal basis for controlling activities of citizens and legal persons, their common principles and grounds. It also regulates the relations regarding rules of running examination and protecting examinees, Terbishdagva said.



DP Secretary-General Receives Burmese Journalists
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) On Tuesday, the Democratic party's (DP) secretary-general and secretary Ts.Oyundari and O.Chuluunbileg received the Burmese journalists who are being trained here at invitation of the Presidential Office.
Ms Oyundari spoke about Mongolia’s democratic revolution and the party's history. Then the visitors asked her about finance mechanism of political forces, political elections procedure, and expressed their views.
As we sad before, the Burmese media are involved here in a five-day training, initiated by Mongolian President's Office and run by EBI Think-Tank institute.


Citizenship and Migration General Authority of Mongolia Now Operational under New Structure
April 2 (infomongolia.com) At the plenary session of the State Great Khural (Parliament) held on December 26, 2013, the new bill on Border Checkpoints was approved, which is effective from April 01, 2014.
In the frameworks of the newly ratified law, the Border Ports Divisions are now administered by Mongolia Immigration Office and in the scope of enlarging its function; the Office has been running under new structure as the Citizenship and Migration General Authority of Mongolia (CMGAM) from April 01, 2014. Before, the Border Ports Divisions were authorized by General Authority for Border Protection.
The inauguration ceremony of new organ was held at the Chinggis Khaan International Airport on April 01, 2014, where State Secretary at the Ministry of Justice J.Bayartsetseg, Chairman of CMGAM B.Purevdorj and other officials were present.
According to official estimation, over 4.5 million foreign and domestic travelers cross Mongolian border annually and under the new law implementation, it enables to enhance and aggrandize border checkpoints’ operation into the business development centralized region and run under general policy and guidance. Moreover, the CMGAM will now be cooperating closely with Mongolian Diplomatic Offices overseas to assist Mongolian citizens residing abroad and protect their rights, besides to monitor foreign nationals visiting Mongolia from the day entering until departure.
The new organ has been expanded with over 600 employees serving in western, eastern, southern and northern regions of Mongolia; in addition the office is also running at the Chinggis Khaan International Airport, Selenge and Dornogovi Aimags.
Citizenship and Migration General Authority of Mongolia is operating in the following locations:
- Headquarter (former Mongolia Immigration Office facility)
- Buyant Ukhaa (Chinggis Khaan International Airport)
- Dornogovi Aimag
- Selenge Aimag (Darkhan-Uul Aimag)
- Eastern region (Dornod, Sukhbaatar and Khentii Aimags)
- Southern region (Umnugovi, Dundgovi, Uvurkhangai, Bayankhongor and Govisumber Aimags)
- Western region (Khovd, Bayan-Ulgii, Uvs, Zavkhan and Govi-Altai Aimags)
- Northern region (Khuvsgul, Orkhon, Arkhangai and Bulgan Aimags)
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Mongolia to Participate in Vietnam Trade Fair
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) For the first time Mongolia is to take part in the 24th Vietnam international trade fair which will run in Hanoi city April 16-19.
The decision to participate in this action has been made in a view of the 60th anniversary of the diplomatic relations between Mongolia and Vietnam marked this year.
Our country will be represented by the National Chamber of Commerce and Industry /MNCCI/ and business delegates.
During the event, international business and experience exchange meetings will run themed "Vietnam-Cooperation and Development".
The Vietnam Expo fair is considered as the biggest exhibition in its region in terms of number of participants and the trade turnover. The last year's action brought together 400 participants from 17 countries who displayed products in 520 pavilions for 22 thousand guests from 40 countries. 


BH Gains Toehold in Mongolia Hospital
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) Health Horizons Enterprises (HHE) was set up last month in Singapore with registered capital of US$20,000. HHE, in which Bumrungrad Hospital /BH/, Thailand's second-largest listed hospital operator, holds an 80% stake, last Friday acquired a controlling interest in Ulaanbaatar Songdo Hospital (UBSD).
It was published on bangkokpost.com website April 1. HHE owns 100% of the common shares of Bumrungrad Mongolia LLC (BML), which holds 51% of the common shares of Seoul Seniors Tower LLC (SST). SST owns and operates Ulaanbaatar Songdo Hospital.
BML issued share capital of 4.08 billion Mongolian tugrug (about 74.5 million baht) at a par value of 1,000 tugrug per share.
BH set capital expenditures this year at 1.2 billion baht excluding mergers and acquisitions.
"Hospitals in South Korea and Singapore have targeted it for referrals," said Dennis Brown, Bumrungrad's corporate chief executive. "Most Mongolians with serious medical problems who can afford overseas treatment would be seen at UBSD. This gives us an excellent opportunity to work with UB Songdo Hospital to expand their diagnostic and treatment services and coordinate tertiary referrals at the source."
Mongolia has one of the world's fastest-growing economies. For several years Bumrungrad has been one of the main destinations for Mongolians seeking overseas treatment. 


Mongolian Dinosaur Exhibition Opens in Japan
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) Mongolian dinosaurs exhibition named “Mongolian Gobi: Amazing Country of Dinosaurs” has opened in Japanese Nagoya city's Science Museum.
It has been organized in frames of the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Mongolia and Japan and the 20th anniversary of joint paleontology expedition of the two countries, with a support of the Japanese national daily "Yomiuri Shimbun", “Nippon Express" air cargo service company and scientists and researchers of Mongolia and Hayshibara museum.
The exhibition displays 130 kinds of items from Mongolia and European countries, including found by the joint team the tarbosaurus, also known as the Asian tyrannosaurus; a primitive ceratopsian protoceratops, 'baby dinosaur fossil', preserved in unprecedentedly good condition, and a fighting dinosaur', instantly fossilized while fighting.
At the same time, the exhibition introduces achievements of the Mongolian geology research being conducted jointly by the Nagoya's Science and University museums.
Present at the opening ceremony were Kh.Tsogtbaatar, a director of Paleontological Centre of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Mr Tsuneo Ishimaru, a director of the Science Museum, Mr Hiroto Kusama, a head of department for supporting culture and sport of Yomiuri.
The exhibition, already displayed in Tokyo and Osaka cities, will be on show until June 8.


State Academic Drama Theatre 2014 April Program
April 2 (infomongolia.com) The State Academic Drama Theatre has been implementing the “Playlet” project from April 2014 and under the program seven drama plays will be staged by seven different directors.
The plays are:
1. "Innocent Guilt" by A.Ochirbat, produced by State Merit Servant (SMS) B.Baatar
2. "Sorry, Wrong Number" by Violet Lucille Fletcher, produced by Frontier Cultural
Servant (FCS) Ch.Tuvshin
3. "Crow Grove" by Alexander Vampilov produced by SMS, People's Artist
B.Muknkhdorj
4. "Yesterday" by G.Pinter, produced by State Prize Laureate N.Naranbaatar
5. "Lullaby" by N.Gankhuyag, produced by PhD, SMS, Prof. N.Gankhuyag
6. “The Open Couple” by Dario Fo, produced by SMS Ch.Naidandorj
7. "Model" by Nikolai Kolyada, produced by Ts.Batnairamdal
Three of above seven plays are included in the State Academic Drama Theatre 2014 April Program
April 02 and 20, 11:00 & 14:00, "Norovyn Namtar" (Biography of Norov) children play by D.Sodnomdorj
April 03-04, 14:00, "Norovyn Namtar" (Biography of Norov) children play by D.Sodnomdorj
April 09-13, 19:00, "Crow Grove" tragic-comedy play by Alexander Vampilov
April 12, 11:00, "Oedipus the King" Athenian tragedy by Sophocles
April 19 at 18:00 and April 20 at 19:00, "Hamlet" tragedy play by William Shakespeare
April 23-27, 19:00, "Lullaby" three-act drama play by N.Gankhuyag
April 30, 19:00, "Sorry, Wrong Number" tragedy dram play by Violet Lucille Fletcher  
Related:


Deputy Minister for Justice E.Erdenejamyan has been suspended of working in the government
April 2 (business-mongolia.com) Deputy Minister for Justice E.Erdenejamyan, a member of MPRP led by the former President, Prime Minister, and Speaker N.Enkhbayar found guilty on charges of obstructing justice and ongoing investigation by the district court. The investigation begun last year by the IAAC when the Deputy Minister sent a letter to Interpol requesting to take off 2 persons name from the wanted list. One of them was N.Enkhtuya which is the elder sister of N.Enkhbayar.
In addition to the suspension, E.Erdenejamyan faces a fine 60 times of minimum wage which is around USD5000. E.Erdenejamyan’s lawyer stated that he will appeal the decision.


Mongolian President’s Surgery in Japan Underwent Successfully
April 2 (infomongolia.com) On March 24, 2014, President of Mongolia Ts.Elbegdorj departed for Japan to undergo surgery for a herniated disc there.
Accordingly, physician to the President, Associate Professor PhD U.Tsolmon called a brief press statement today and clarified, “Back surgery is described one of the difficult surgeries in its category and the President’s diagnose is listed as the disease can be treated only abroad and must undergo for surgery, therefore President decided to undergo for treatment in Japan. The surgery was conducted on March 31 and underwent successfully, now President Ts.Elbegdorj feels well and First Lady Kh.Bolormaa and President’s brothers are with him.
However it was diagnosed earlier during his participation in the UN General Assembly meeting last autumn, but due to coincidences with Mongolian traditional Tsagaan Sar Festival, followed by Sochi Winter Olympics opening ceremony and other not to delaying issues, President had to postpone to date”.
Currently, when to return home is not informed yet.


April 1 (Oxford Business Group) With demand for electricity on the rise, and a national drive to boost renewable power production gathering strength, investor interest in Mongolia’s fledgling wind energy industry looks set to grow.
The government aims for renewable sources to account for at least 20% of power generation capacity by 2020, up from 3% today. It is also keen to export renewable energy, although significant investment will be required if Mongolia is to achieve its objectives.
Second wind farm deal sealed
On February 19, the German firm, Ferrostaal Industrial Projects, announced plans to invest $120m in the Sainshand wind farm project, which is located in Mongolia’s Gobi Desert. Managing director Klaus Lesker said the company would take on the role of project developer, while working with local partners to boost foreign investment. A power purchase agreement and operating licences have already been signed. Once completed, the 52-MW facility will provide power for the national distributor.
Operations at the wind farm, Mongolia’s second such venture, are expected to begin in late 2015. The country’s first wind energy facility, a 50-MW farm located to the south of the capital in Salkhit, is run by Clean Energy, a renewable energy company jointly owned by Mongolian conglomerate Newcom, General Electric Pacific, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Netherlands Development Finance Company. The $120m venture began operating in mid-2013 and feeds into the national grid.
Wind and solar combined account for around 5% of Mongolia’s 955-MW installed capacity, Ministry of Energy figures show. With the ministry forecasting peak demand to reach 2321 MW by 2020, the country will require significant investments in generation capacity over the coming several years.
While coal-fired plants – which account for the vast majority of capacity – are being upgraded and expanded, one alternative is to build additional wind farms. In an interview given to OBG, B. Unenbat, the CEO of Newcom, described local wind resources as “good-to-excellent, equivalent to 1100 GW of wind electric potential”.
Further government incentives may be necessary to boost investment, however. The state has already introduced initiatives such as feed-in tariffs for producers at above-market rates over extended terms. Last year also saw an easing of restrictions on foreign investment.
According to Unenbat, an increase in public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the energy sector could help the country secure its energy independence. “Mongolia’s private and public sectors need to increase cooperation and collaboration to ensure we are all on the same page, with clear and defined roles for each project, creating a win-win scenario for all parties,” he commented.
Looking east
Mongolia has, in addition, set its sights on carving a niche as a distribution centre for renewable energy. President Elbegdorj last year mapped out plans to utilise the country’s wind energy resources as a means of exporting power to China and elsewhere in Asia.
Taiwan is also keen to tap the industry’s potential, signing a memorandum of understanding with Mongolia on renewable energy development in February, which set out terms for establishing strategic partnerships in the sector, building links and promoting greater use of wind and solar power.
While Taiwan will be providing training to Mongolian officials in energy sector management, Taipei is also focusing on the investment and business opportunities that are opening up. Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a statement that the agreement would allow local companies greater access to an “extensive market” with vast renewable energy sources.
Addressing pollution
Mongolia’s drive to diversify its energy sources stems from both rising demand and an awareness of the damage inflicted on the country’s ecosystem by fossil fuels.
Many Mongolians use coal for household heating, which exacerbates the problem. The World Bank estimates that pollution rates in the capital of Ulaanbaatar are among the highest in the world.
The knock-on effects of Mongolia’s pollution problems are evident. According to the UN Environment Programme, average temperatures have risen by 2.1°C over the past six or seven decades, approximately three times faster than the global average. Concerns are growing that higher temperatures could, in the future, lead to a loss of pastureland, a permafrost thaw and glacial melting.
A drive to boost growth across Mongolia’s renewable energy sector will help address these issues, while providing opportunities for companies along the supply and management chain.


Montsame to Cooperate with City’s Tourism Department
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The MONTSAME national news agency will cooperate with the City’s Tourism Department (CTD) in a way of propagandizing through its network the products and information released by the CTD, publishing books, and making tourism-dedicated products.
The cooperation memorandum was signed Wednesday by A.Baatarkhuyag, the Director-general of the MONTSAME agency, and by E.Battulga, the head of the CTD.
Our agency’s main function is to propagandize Mongolia to the world, "so we can cooperate in all spheres," said Mr Baatarkhuyag.
A tourism is one of the factors to express a nation’s development, "and we are pleased to cooperate with the national news agency in attracting tourists to the capital city and to boost this sector,” Mr Battulga said.
A first step will be a release of pocketbooks about UB tourism routes. The MONTSAME will also broadcast a short documentary about Ulaanbaatar through the Organization of Asia-Pacific News Agencies’ (OANA) network. It will be placed on the oananews.org website.
The agency cooperates with some 40 news agencies of 33 countries, exchanging information and news, and prepares news in six languages, publishing them online and in daily brochures and weekly newspapers.


Speaker Meets APO Secretary-General
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The Parliament Speaker Z.Enkhbold Wednesday met with the Asian Productivity Organization (APO) Secretary-General Mr Mari Amano.
The Speaker thanked Mr Amano for joint projects that have been carried out between Mongolia and APO in twenty year time after Mongolia’s joining the APO. Aware of the importance productivity improvement practices, the Mongolian Government has been supporting all these projects, noted Mr Enkhbold.
He also highlighted a significance of benchmarking and error deterrence processes in productivity enhancement. The Parliament Office has been conducting a so-called "re-engineering" study to improve productivity at workplaces, he said.
Pleased to hear about the ongoing project in the Parliament Office, Mr Amano urged the Mongolian part to study experiences of other countries and to actively attend relevant meetings and forums organized by the APO. The ongoing project is very similar to what the APO is striving efforts for, except for its name, highlighted the Secretary-General.


Finance Minister Works in “11 11” Center
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The Minister of Finance Ch.Ulaan Wednesday worked in the “11 11” center at the cabinet for reforms. Some 3,500 people obtained information that day through phones and the Internet.
Mongolian economics is facing challenges, for example, the end of first quarter shows that the state budgetary revenue did not reach a targeted volume, he said. "It happened due to price fall of mining products at the world market, a level-off condition of investments, non-ordered activities of related enterprises and some mistakes in policies which have been implemented from the previous year," he explained. 
He also reported that a law has been adopted to spend 200 billion togrog for salaries and pensions rise. The pensions rose in a first quarter, whereas salaries are being increased in several steps, he added.
By the first three months of this year, the inflation rate is a two-digit number but it is possible to cut down it to one-digit of to realizing the macroeconomic policy and state fiscal policy. He went on that a centralization of budgets is expected to decline thanks to authorizing the aimags to independently spend their budgets. Thus, people should to put a tough control over spending of the budget money, he said.
Governor Meets US Embassy Delegation
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The governor of Omnogobi province B.Badraa received a delegation of the US embassy to Mongolia on Tuesday.
At the meeting, the Economic and Commercial Section Chief Mr David Wyche said that their working visit is starting from a key province of Mongolian economy and noted that the aimag changed since their visit in 2012.
He also said that the U.S. investment companies are interested in collaborating with the locality in mining and environment spheres.
In response, the governor Badraa spoke about his aimag's present and future and expressed a readiness to cooperate with the U.S. companies. The sides focused on the matters concerning the local budget and inhabitants' health.


B. Boldbaatar Receives Turkish Ambassador
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) The Secretary-General of the Parliament Office B.Boldbaatar met Wednesday with the Ambassador of Turkey to Mongolia Mr Murat Karagoz.
Pleased with the high-level relationship and cooperation between the two countries, the Turkish Ambassador highlighted that this year marks the 45th anniversary of the diplomatic relations between Mongolia and Turkey, with varied activities planned ahead. One of those activities would an official visit of Mr Cemil Cicek, the Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, he noted. After this, the sides shared opinions on ways of organizing this visit.


Mongolia to Import Grain Seeds from Russian Buryatia
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) Mongolian farmers are planning to plant wheat and vegetables late April.
This year, the nation will sow grain in 315 thousand ha, wheat in 304 thousand ha, potato in 15.4 thousand ha, and other vegetables in 8.3 thousand ha, says B.Odonkhuu, an officer responsible for grain production at the Industry and Agriculture Ministry.
Within goals of upgraded quality and improved reserves of grain seeds, authorities intend to import seeds from Russian Altai Krai and Buryatia Republic without customs tax, he added; however, the amount of imports has not been determined yet.
The nation harvested 370 thousand ton of wheat, 198 thousand ton of potato and 106 thousand ton of other vegetables last year--amounts measured less than those of previous years, due to weather conditions.


Nursing School Gets Mobility Rehab Equipment
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) A nursing school under the Health Sciences University has acquired 40 thousand USD worth mobility rehabilitation equipment.
These facilities have been given in frames of the "Global Grant" project of Mongolian "Bayanzurkh" Rotary together with the Japanese "Maebashi" Rotary club with aims to create better training environment for medical staff and new alumni and to deliver quality health services.


Coal Prices to Be Set by Contract
Ulaanbaatar, April 2 (MONTSAME) Commencing from April 1, exported coal prices will be set according to contracts concluded between the buyer and the supplier.
Prior to that, Mongolian miners would sell coal to its only buyer China at lower, standard prices rather than global market prices.
In order to reduce loss of the mining companies and to revive coal exports, the Mining Ministry decided to regulate coal prices with contracts established between buyer and supplier. The decision has come into force since April 1, together with the new law on border ports.
Today, five Mongolian companies are supplying coal to China.


Five more patients diagnosed with HIV
April 2 (news.mn) A new patient has been diagnosed with HIV on March 31st. This patient is the 158th person diagnosed with HIV in Mongolia. 
The National Centre for Communicable Diseases revealed five more HIV cases found in people aged between 20-40 years as result of research among high risk groups of HIV conducted by the center last month. Currently the patients diagnosed with AIDS are in a good health condition under medical specialists control taking antiretroviral drugs to control infection. 
Clinical professor of the National Centre for Communicable Diseases Ch.Urtnasan said that “this is the first time that five patients have been diagnosed with HIV in a month in Mongolia.”  According to a study by WHO, in Mongolia over 500 people might carry the HIV virus. 


Foot and mouth quarantine to be lifted
April 2 (news.mn) The quarantine set in Khentii, Dornod and Sukhbaatar provinces to curb the spread of foot-and-mouth disease is to be lifted.  The State Emergency Commission of Mongolia organized a meeting on the foot-and-mouth disease situation in the eastern provinces, to discuss the results of measures taken against the spreading of the disease and to decide any further actions on the issue on Wednesday April 2nd. 
Since the foot-and-mouth livestock infectious disease was discovered in Ongon sum in Sukhbaatar province on January 27th, it spread through a total of 13 sums in three provinces including six sums in Sukhbaatar, one sum in Khentii province and six provinces in Dornogovi province. So far 3454 cattle have been destroyed and 4.5 million livestock have been vaccinated due to spread of infectious disease. 
No more cattle have been found to have the disease in the past 11-41 days. Thus the quarantine and restriction that had been in place in Khentii, Sukhbaatar and Dornod are to be lifted while Ikhkhet and Dalanjargalan sums in Dornogovi province are still under control by Provincial Emergency Commission. 
Any domestic migration is prohibited for at least two months and the transportation of animal related products will be allowed on the basis of disinfection and decontamination. 


Asian Development Bank: Mongolia’s Economic Growth Forecast at 9.5% in 2014
April 2 (infomongolia.com) On April 01, 2014, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) introduced Asian Development Outlook 2014: Fiscal Policy for Inclusive Growth and the Report highlights that Developing Asia is expected to extend its steady growth. The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded steadily by 6.1% in 2013, the same pace as in the previous year and to reach 6.2% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015.
In this regard, the ADB Mongolia officials held a press conference today regarding Asian Development Outlook 2014 at the Mongolian Press Institute in Ulaanbaatar, where Senior Financial Specialist of ADB with resident mission in Mongolia, Mr. Jan Hansen and Economist L.Amar were present.
According to Outlook, Mongolia is challenged by significant external imbalances because foreign direct investment has declined rapidly and some mineral exports remain weak. Growth is forecast to moderate in 2014 and remain broadly stable in 2015, inflation to decline, and the current account balance to improve over the next 2 years, assuming appropriate policies. The major policy priority is to address pressures on the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves.
Mongolia’s economic prospects
Medium-term prospects remain promising, with growth expected in the double digits after a dip in 2014, given Mongolia’s potential to develop its natural resources. Economic growth is forecast at 9.5% in 2014, driven in particular by the start of copper production at the Oyu Tolgoi open pit in June of last year. Growth in non-mineral output is expected to be held back by the tighter economic policy, which will be needed to reduce high domestic demand and so relieve balance-of-payment (BOP) pressures. In particular, the overall budgetary deficit including off-budget outlays is expected to be lower than in 2013, as the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) curtails investment expenditure and as Bank of Mongolia (BOM) liquidity injections are expected to begin their phase-out this year.
Economic growth is expected to pick up slightly to 10% in 2015, spurred by further development in mining, including the possible development of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine and an expansion of coal production from the Tavan Tolgoi mine (Figure 3.12.8). Non-mining growth is expected to accelerate as restrictive economic policies are eased and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are assumed to partly recover. Inflation in 2014 is expected to increase to 11%, driven by the lagged effect of expansionary monetary policy in 2013 and the recent depreciation of the Tugrug (MNT).
Inflationary pressure in 2015 is expected to ease, assuming a tightening of economic policy in 2014 and a more stable exchange rate, with inflation falling to 8% consistent with Bank of Mongolia monetary policy (Figure 3.12.9).
The current account deficit is forecast to fall to 20% of GDP in 2014 and 15% in 2015 as the trade balance improves. Exports are expected to grow following the start of Oyu Tolgoi production last year, and as new mining projects come on-stream. The recent exchange rate depreciation and the expected tightening of economic policy will further constrain domestic absorption and dampen imports. The new investment law and the planned second phase of Oyu Tolgoi development are expected to support a recovery in FDI inflows, further stabilizing the BOP.
Mongolia’s economic prospects are subject to downside risks from an uncertain external environment and the continuation of expansionary economic policies at a time when the BOP is under pressure. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the main destination for Mongolia’s exports, accepting about 87% of them in 2013. Mongolia is thus highly vulnerable as the PRC rebalances from investment-led growth toward greater reliance of consumption, which may initially dampen demand for Mongolia’s exports. Environmental concerns in the PRC may also reduce coal consumption. Further, substantial increase in global supplies and growing competition are putting Mongolia’s mineral exports on an uncertain growth trajectory. Future trends in Mongolia’s major export prices are also uncertain (Figure 3.12.10). On the domestic front, the continuation of current monetary and fiscal policies will inevitably perpetuate BOP and inflationary pressures, requiring significant real economic adjustments that may curtail growth.

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